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Feature, Two Presidents and the Ambiguous Future of Afghanistan

Feature: Two Presidents and the Ambiguous Future of Afghanistan

Despite billions of dollars incurred in costs, and the presence of the world’s largest economic and military power in Afghanistan and many countries of the world, why couldn’t a healthy and transparent election could be held. And, why without the mediation of the United States, the fate of election cannot be decided.
This matter has its roots in the structure of power, ethnicity, culture and political history of the land. The structure of power in Afghanistan has always been ethnocentric and monopolistic in every respect; in this structure, the top of the pyramid has always been controlled by an elite formed on the basis of ethnicity. That has ensured the domination of ethnic control and the monopoly of power. For this reason, there has never been social justice in Afghanistan, and its inhabitants have sought refuge in ethnicity rather than on a sense of national unity.
A political environment has been created that has sparked social divisions and national mistrust. People who have taken control of ethnic-based power have become popularized, and have sought to gain legitimacy and popularity among the masses, instead of striving to transform power, introduce social reform, and create a national spirit. They have worked for monopoly of power and even dictatorship.
After years of investing in our rulers, the Americans appear to be frustrated, and they have started giving concessions to the Taliban to transform them from a wanted terrorist group to a legitimate political power. Now with many divisions that exist, the ground for a powerful Taliban presence in the future of the political system in the country has been ensured.
Dissent, division, widespread election fraud, especially in 1398, and the declaration of victory by two presidents in an uncertain situation will weaken the foundations of the democratic system and destroy its social base. The greater the distance between the people and the regime, the easier it is for the Taliban to achieve their desires and build the foundations of their government in Afghanistan according to their wishes. Two simultaneous inauguration ceremonies in the country showed that if this situation is not managed, war, insecurity, disorder and bloodshed will continue in Afghanistan and Afghanistan will enter a very deadly and destructive phase of civil war.
Afghanistan is no longer the country that started the hopeful process of open society nineteen years ago with the help of the international community. It is now mired in political and social disaster and there is no hope for a bright tomorrow. Tyranny and bullying are already on display at all levels.
The first issue in the current political environment of the country is the resolution of the election problem in any way possible. Without a democratic and accountable government, Afghanistan will not pass through the difficulties. People’s belief in the current heads of government has been totally destroyed, and security, peace and prosperity cannot be achieved in their presence. Ghani’s five-year experience of ethnic rule showed that he lacked the leadership of the country, and under his rule the scope of political, security and social unrest only widened.
The important point is that the current administration has no ability, legitimacy, or competence to promote peace talks between Afghans that are likely to come to fruition after the US-Taliban peace deal is signed.
The Taliban have already opposed any talks with Ghani and his representatives. Ghani’s six-member delegation, which had gone to Qatar to discuss the release of Taliban prisoners, faced a backlash from the Taliban negotiating body. When the Taliban refuse to negotiate with Ghani’s administration, there will not be a future for peace talks that could lead to a ceasefire in the country. That is why the current administration needs to be replaced by an acceptable one representing the majority of the Afghan population.
Now, given the situation in Afghanistan, there are three ways forward: the first is to form a national unity government like the previous Afghan government. However, this should be conditional on overcoming the deficiencies of the previous. At the time, Mr. Abdullah was the chief executive but had no executive power, and this was a major problem with the previous plan.
The second is to transform the existing government into an interim government until a new election is held within at least the next year.
The third option facing Afghanistan is the issue of two governments, which practically means chaos and division of Afghanistan. With the current situation, almost all northern provinces of Afghanistan will be under Abdullah’s control, and he will be able to nominate governors for these areas and will no longer be held accountable by the government in Kabul.
Therefore, applying the model of government of national reconciliation is the most logical and easiest way for the political forces to overcome the previous and current problems.
(Sahar News)

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