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Pakistan to reach COVID-19 peak by June 20

Pakistan to Reach COVID-19 Peak by June 20

ISLAMABAD – Pakistan is likely to peak its coronavirus outbreak in late June, independent scientists predict, as the country records its largest one-day deaths so far.
Generally speaking, the peak is a grim marker, indicating the day with the highest number of cases and deaths in a country.
“In the current scenario, the peak is expected from June 20 to the end of the month,” a Zafar Yasin scientist told Pakistani media.
Yasin, affiliated with the European Organization for Nuclear Research (CERN) in Switzerland, and his colleagues Sohaib Hassan and Bilal Javed Mughal made the prediction based on a mathematical model called “Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR)”.
The SEIR model is also being used by state officials from the Ministry of National Health Services in Islamabad to forecast the development of the new virus.
According to Yasin’s team’s findings, Pakistan is forecast to record between 210,000 and 226,000 coronavirus cases in total and between 4,500 and 6,000 deaths in late August.
Also, at its peak, it would be reporting close to 100 deaths per day.
In a research article, written by the team titled “A Model and Forecast Based on the Transmission of Modified Metapopulations SEIR from the COVID-19 Pandemic in Pakistan,” Scientists write that a strict blockade reduces stress on hospital beds, health and testing workers capabilities.
A proper blockade, he adds, “gives a country time to prepare for its health needs by shifting its peak into the future. In addition, it reduces the cumulative number of infected and thus saves lives in the long term.”
Scientists also note how the virus would respond in four different scenarios: no blocking, partial blocking, and strict blocking.
Simply put, a strict block would delay peak time and allow hospitals to prepare.
If the government introduced a four-month blockade in June, the newspaper explains, the number of daily cases could drop to 1,600 and delay the peak until July 20.
In the case of a “no blocking” strategy, 4250 – 5450 cases would be recorded every day.
But a shortcoming of the mathematical model is the available data and Pakistan’s low testability.
“The recent selection of parameters and epidemic prediction is based on the number of tests in Pakistan,” adds the document, “The country is doing fewer tests per million compared to other countries.”
(Sahar News Monitoring Desk)

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