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South Korea Coronavirus Cases may Increase: JPMorgan

SEOUL, South Korea – The coronavirus, next month, may infect as many as 10,000 people in South Korea at what could be a peak, according to a report from JPMorgan Chase & Co. citing its insurance team’s epidemiology model.
Analysts led by JJ Park said; “That scenario assumes a 3% initial exposed group out of about 2.4 million people in Daegu Metropolitan City and a secondary infection rate based on Chinese experience with the virus.”
It is difficult to predict that how the epidemic might develop around the world and has made global financial markets more volatile.
While health experts have tried to predict the ultimate number of infections in China and elsewhere, the calculations have been made more perplexing by government containment measures and travel restraints that help slow the spread, and a lack of full understanding of how the highly-infectious pathogen is transmitted.
In Asia, South Korea is emerging as a coronavirus hot spot, with infections jumping to 1,146, from only 51 a week ago.
The fallout from the epidemic threatens South Korea’s fragile economic recovery, and data Wednesday showed that manufacturers’ confidence fallen the most in five years.
JPMorgan said that given the “sudden and substantial increase in infected cases,” it sees further problem for economic growth. It expects the Bank of Korea to cut its base rate by 25 basis points in February to a record low of 1%.
JPMorgan report added that in Korea, potential disruptions from the virus in the supply chain, domestic consumption, exports and incoming travelers could hurt sectors including casinos, consumers, banks, autos, petrochemicals and technology.
The coronavirus pandemic has killed thousands in China and shut down parts of the economy there.
According to the median of recent economists’ reports, China’s economy is forecast to grow the slowest since 1990.
(Sahar News Monitoring Desk)

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